AI Pulse
The honest read on AI progress
Three transparently-sourced dials: how much raw compute is behind the frontier, how far today's systems are from an operational definition of Super AI, and which human milestones AI has reached. Every number shows its source, retrieval date, and data class — expand any dial to check our work.
UofAi Compute Pulse
as of 2026-07-02
Components & sources (4)
- Largest known training run500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000FLOP
Largest publicly estimated run (Grok 4). Newer frontier runs likely exceed this but are undisclosed. Frontier training compute grows 4–5× per year.
- Global AI chip compute stock growth3.4× per year
Doubling roughly every 6.8 months. Largest single AI data center ≈ 800,000 H100-equivalents.
- AI chip performance per dollar37% per year improvement
Inference cost at fixed capability has been halving roughly every 2 months.
- Frontier training power draw100MW+ per frontier run
Growing 2.2–2.9× per year; single runs projected to reach 4–16 GW by 2030.
band 51.0–60.0
Superintelligence Horizon Index
as of 2026-07-02
Components & sources (3)
- Expert knowledge frontier (Humanity's Last Exam)59.2
VERIFY: reported SOTA ranges 45.7–53.3% across leaderboards as of 2026-06-30; Scale/CAIS official leaderboard is canonical. Human domain experts ≈ 90%. Range published per UBS-1 conflict rule.
- Novel-skill acquisition (ARC-AGI-2 & 3)33.3
ARC-AGI-2 SOTA 54% (verified Dec 2025); ARC-AGI-3 best purpose-built agent 12.58% at March 2026 launch, frontier LLMs <1%. Human baseline 100% on both.
- Autonomous task horizon (METR 50%-reliability)74.5
Frontier 50%-horizon ≈ 12–16 hours (May 2026); METR notes measurements above 16 hours are unreliable with the current task suite. Target for SHI=100 on this subscale: one work-month (167 hours). Doubling time ≈ 4 months in 2024–2026, up from 7 months historically.
Human Parity Tracker
as of 2026-07-02
Human Parity ledger
Landmark human capabilities AI has reached, is approaching, or has yet to reach — each with falsifiable criteria and a citation.
Coding & Software
- Elite competitive-programming parity2025 · OpenAI reasoning modelsAchieved
Gold-medal / top-rank performance at IOI/ICPC-level contests.
- Autonomous resolution of most real-world software issuesFrontier coding agentsFrontier
Majority resolution on verified real-repository issue suites with human-level acceptance; strong but not yet reliable across arbitrary codebases.
Economic & Professional
- Majority of remote-work tasks at expert qualityOpen
Independent evaluation shows AI completing >50% of a representative remote-task basket at expert quality and cost parity.
- Award-competitive long-form creative work, judged blindFrontier
AI-authored long-form work places in blind professional judging; strong short-form results exist, long-form remains contested.
Games & Strategy
- Superhuman chess1997 · IBM Deep BlueAchieved
Defeats reigning human world champion in match play.
- Superhuman Go2016 · DeepMind AlphaGoAchieved
Defeats top-ranked human professionals in even matches.
- Superhuman multiplayer no-limit poker2019 · Pluribus (CMU/Meta)Achieved
Beats elite professionals in six-player no-limit Hold'em.
Language & Knowledge
- Broad academic exam parity (MMLU-class)2023 · GPT-4-class modelsAchieved
Exceeds expert-human accuracy on broad multiple-choice academic suites; now saturated above 88–90%.
- Passes controlled Turing-test studies2025 · GPT-4.5 (UC San Diego study)Achieved
Judged human more often than actual humans in a controlled three-party Turing test.
- Expert parity on Humanity's Last ExamOpen
SOTA reaches ~90% (human domain-expert average); current SOTA 45.7–53.3% (VERIFY per §6.2 conflict note).
Long-Horizon Agency
- One-workday autonomous task horizon2026 · Frontier agents (METR-measured)Achieved
50%-reliability time horizon ≥ 8 hours on METR methodology; frontier ≈ 12–16 hours as of May 2026.
- One-workweek autonomous task horizonOpen
50%-reliability horizon ≥ 40 hours; METR's current suite cannot yet measure reliably beyond 16 hours.
- One-workmonth autonomous task horizonOpen
50%-reliability horizon ≥ 167 hours (the SHI autonomy target).
Mathematics
- International Math Olympiad gold-medal performance2025 · OpenAI & Google DeepMind systemsAchieved
Official gold-medal-level score on IMO problems under competition conditions.
- Research-level mathematics (FrontierMath majority)Open
Solves a majority of FrontierMath research-tier problems.
Novel-Skill Acquisition
- Human parity on ARC-AGI-2Open
≥85% on the semi-private set at human-comparable efficiency; SOTA 54%.
- Human parity on ARC-AGI-3 interactive reasoningOpen
Matches the 100% human baseline on unseen interactive environments; best system 12.58% at launch, frontier LLMs <1%.
Perception
- Human parity in image classification2015 · ResNet-era modelsAchieved
Surpasses human error rate on ImageNet.
- Human parity in conversational speech recognition2017 · Microsoft ResearchAchieved
Matches human transcription error rate on Switchboard.
Physical & Embodied
- Broad driverless deploymentWaymo and peersFrontier
Fully driverless ride-hailing at scale in multiple metros; not yet generalized across all conditions/geographies.
- General household manipulationOpen
A commercially available robot reliably performs varied household chores in unmodified homes.
- General-purpose humanoid in commercial workOpen
Humanoid robots performing economically useful multi-task labor at scale without teleoperation.
Science & Research
- PhD-expert parity on Google-proof science Q&A2024 · Frontier reasoning modelsAchieved
Exceeds the 65% PhD-expert baseline on GPQA Diamond; SOTA now >90%, approaching saturation.
- Autonomous novel scientific discoveryMultiple lab systemsFrontier
An AI system independently generates and validates a novel, peer-review-published scientific finding end-to-end; current systems co-author and accelerate but require human direction.